Exponential Growth

1.       “Approximately when was the bottle half full? “   I would estimate that the bottle was half full at 11:30 since it took 1 hour to fill the bottle. 

2.       Then answer the next question.

3.       Did anything surprise you about these two parts?  I was surprised to see that I got the answer wrong and that it was half full and full at the same time frame. 

4.       “Any time living things are allowed to reproduce freely, their numbers increase exponentially not linearly. And when people talk about "steady growth," they mean exponential growth then, too.” Why do you think people might have trouble understanding exponential growth? I think people will have trouble understanding this because it is not black and white.  We are used to things growing at an even pace and steadily.  Not quickly multiplying.

5.       Whenever you hear that something is growing by some percentage, or that something is growing steadily, what rule should you remember in order to understand the rate of growth? Explain this rule.  You need to remember it is not always linearly but, exponential growth too.  As something grows larger it starts to multiply even faster than it did before.  Keeping ahead of it is nearly impossible. Remembering the rule of 70 says that eventually it will double. 

6.       “When our consumption of a resource (energy, for instance) grows steadily, the doubling time takes on an even scarier meaning.” What is that scarier meaning? The scary thing is that if our society continues to grow our resources will be used up.  There is no way for our supply to keep up with the demand. When looking at the charts we find that we have used up more energy than all of history before us. 

7.       “…if we keep increasing our energy consumption like this, we'll use more energy in the next 25 years than we've produced _in all of history up to now_______________________.”

8.       “There are those who say we don't need to worry about running out of oil, because there's still lots of oil left in the ground. Experts believe that over the past 150 years we have used up about half the total oil on Earth. In other words, our oil supply "bottle" is still half full.” But if we keep doubling our population, what will happen?  We will run out of oil after 1 more doubling.

The People Paradox Video

These questions are in order as the video runs.

About India

1.       Compare the education of the residents of north and south India. How does this correlate with the number of children women bear?  Women in the northern part of the country are uneducated and have an average of 5/6 children each.  In the southern part of the country women are educated and birth rates are down with each women averaging 3 kids.  This could cause the population to double instead of stabilize.

2.       Who are the “gatekeepers to health services” in India?  The US is offering support with the help of Dr. Ravi Anand with healthcare and family planning.   However the husbands and their mothers make all the decisions regarding pregnancy and family planning therefor, they are referred to as the “gate keepers”.

3.       Why might sons be preferred in India? Sons are preferred in India because they stay with the family and care for their elderly parents. With no sons or only one son the parents are at risk of being left “high and dry”.

4.       India demographic pyramid?  Shows that the base is its youth and under 25 reaching reproductive age. What implications does this have?  If they only have 2 kids per couple population growth will halt. 

5.       Why are daughters often considered a burden in India?  Daughters are considedered a burden in India because the family is required to provide a dowry upon marriage. 

6.       How did Abidi Shah change the lives of the young women in the village?  Abidi Shah is a social worker that convinced a town to let her teach vocational education and health to girls.  She helps the women learn skills to get employment.  She also helps them with legal birth control such as the pill.  She teaches them that they have a say in their future as well. 

7.       What are the obstacles for women and employment in India?  India is already struggling with unemployment so it is hard for jobs to come by.  The population is growing too fast for employment to keep up.

8.       What is the knife-edge that India sits upon?  The knife edge that India sits upon has to do with population.  If they can get it under control they will be okay but, just a slight change (couple having 2 kids vs 2.5 kids per couple) it will throw it all off causing drastic consequences. 

About Japan

1.       What is the “revolutionary change” that is happening in Japan?  Japans population is decreasing.  Birth rates have declined greatly and quickly. 

2.       If fertility stays at 1.3, Japan’s population will shrink in ______half___.

3.       What are two reasons Japanese women want to work?  They want their independence and if married many times a dual income family is necessary, especially if children are involved. 

4.       The newswoman and her family had problems with childcare arrangements. What is the relationship between declining birth rates and childcare?  Men spend most of their time at work.  With working wives children spend most of their time in daycare causing guilt with parents.  Because of their dedication to work many couples choose not to have children.

5.       Who cares for elders in Japan?  In the older generations the daughter in law would care for their elderly in-laws.  Today many of the elderly are left on their own because the women in the family are working. 

6.       What does Japan’s age structure look like? What implications does this have?  In Japan the elderly out rule the young.  The down side is that there will be fewer people to replace the retiring elder population.  This could throw off the economy. 

7.       How might immigration help solve this problem?  Immigrants would keep the population up, fill the open spots of employment and keep consumer purchases up. 

8.       What is the average family size worldwide?  The average family worldwide is at or below two children per family.

9.       Many countries encourage families to have more children. It has been found to be easier to  ___cut___ fertility than to __raise______ it.

Sub-Saharan Africa

1.       What does sub-Saharan Africa’s age structure look like? What implications does this have?    The sub-Saharan African age structure is mostly combined of younger population (not even at reproduction age).  If they were to stop reproducing their population would still double.

2.       What situations create tremendous pressures to immigrate?  Falling per capita income and deteriorating social services will cause pressure to immigrate. 

3.       Describe the demographic transition as exemplified in Kenya (starting at 40:21 and in text).The demographic transition exemplified in Kenya with fallen birth rates.  The goal is to have the birth rate and death rates meet up.  Unfortunately in Kenya AIDS is killing off their population quickly. 

4.       Death rates from HIV/AIDS life expectancy has declined from 65 to __49____years.

5.       Women in Africa might have to make a choice between __having a child______ and _being at risk for AIDS_______.

6.       Explain the how the economic gains of Asian Tigers came about.  The government of four countries took money once used for children and used it to create jobs for young adults entering the work force.  The economic growth was enormous.  Helping to eliminate the poverty trap. 

7.       The key to population stabilization key is the __education__ and ___liberation_ of women.

8.       Why should we care about other countries?  We should care about other countries because globally it affects all of us. 

9.       What are two things that struck you most strongly about the situations in this video?  Two things that stuck out the most to me on the video was the females in India being burned and poisoned because of their dowry or not having a male child.  As a father to a daughter it would be devastating to know that could happen.  The other thing I was surprised about was the young boy in Japan that had been the only one in his class since kindergarten.  I didn’t realize how low their child population was.